# CA Mediation: Z → Trilemma → Current Account

| Variable | CA (baseline) | CA (+ trilemma) | CA (trilemma only) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|
| Z_1 | -31.1056*** | -26.9917** | |
| | (11.0268) | (11.9432) | |
| Z_2 | 4.9570*** | 4.5139** | |
| | (1.6721) | (1.8131) | |
| Z_3 | -0.2114*** | -0.1974*** | |
| | (0.0687) | (0.0746) | |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | 0.3815*** | 0.3952*** | 0.4013*** |
| | (0.0335) | (0.0377) | (0.0375) |
| nfa_gdp_lag | -0.1887 | -0.2825 | -0.0951 |
| | (0.2322) | (0.2492) | (0.2425) |
| rgdp_growth | 0.2057*** | 0.2423*** | 0.2445*** |
| | (0.0222) | (0.0237) | (0.0236) |
| log_rel_opw | 2.6185*** | 2.4459*** | 2.2598*** |
| | (0.4080) | (0.4422) | (0.2923) |
| kaopen | 0.8738*** | 0.8379*** | 0.7591*** |
| | (0.1854) | (0.2061) | (0.2013) |
| mi_index | | 0.5270 | 0.7195 |
| | | (0.9460) | (0.9405) |
| ers_index | | -0.0497 | 0.0406 |
| | | (0.6586) | (0.6547) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|
| N | 4881 | 4024 | 4024 |
| R² | 0.1295 | 0.1361 | 0.1357 |
| Countries | 162 | 142 | 142 |

*Panel GLS with country and year fixed effects. Key test: does controlling for trilemma indices attenuate the demographic CA effect? Standard errors in parentheses.*
*\*p<0.1, \*\*p<0.05, \*\*\*p<0.01*